CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-30T03:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45395/-1
CME Note: Large partial-halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) peaking at 2026-03-30T03:19Z. The source is associated with brightening, dimming, moving/opening field lines, and EUV wave as seen in GOES SUVI 195, 304, 284, 131, 094, and 171 starting around 2026-03-30T02:56Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-04-01T11:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-31T12:17Z (-6.17h, +6.17h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 99.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note: 
Prediction Method: ELEvo
 
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-31T12:17Z  (+/- 6.17h) 

Predicted Arrival Speed: 964 +/-  271 km/s 

CME input parameters: 

Apex direction (deg): -27.0 longitude, -14.0 latitude  

Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 

Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 44.0 

initial CME speed: 1845.0 (+/- 50) km/s 

initial height: 21.5 R_sun 

initial time:     2026-03-30T05:07Z 

drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km  

ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s 

time step: 10 min 

ensemble members: 50k
Lead Time: 47.63 hour(s)
Difference: 23.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Ruedisser (ASWO) on 2026-03-30T11:51Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy